Industry News

On June 9, 2026, the Social Security Board of Trustees released its annual report on the program’s financial and actuarial status. In 2025, the Social Security program paid benefits of $1.60 trillion to about 70 million beneficiaries. According to the report, the combined assets of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds are projected to be able to pay 100% of total scheduled benefits until the third quarter of 2034 (unchanged from last year’s report). Should this occur, the Social Security program would be able to pay only 83% of scheduled annual benefits at that time. The report states that the “two funds could not actually be combined unless there was a change in the law, but the combined projection of the two funds is frequently used to indicate the overall status of the Social Security program.”

When the two Social Security trust funds (OASI and DI) are examined separately, the OASI Trust Fund is projected to be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032 (one quarter earlier than last year’s estimate) with 78% of benefits payable at that time. The DI Trust Fund is not projected to be depleted during the 75-year period ending in 2100 (the last year of this report’s projection period).

According to the report, the Trustees project that the total annual cost of the program will exceed total annual income in all future years, as it has since 2021. In 2025, total income (including interest) to the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds amounted to $1.45 trillion and total expenditures from the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds amounted to $1.61 trillion.

Over the 75-year long-range period from 2026 to 2100, the actuarial deficit of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds is projected at 4.42% of taxable payroll, up from 3.82% in 2025. Expressed in relation to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the annual cost of Social Security benefits is projected to increase from 5.3% of GDP in 2026 to a peak of about 6.9% in 2084, and decline to 6.7% by 2100. The Social Security benefit expenses are projected to increase as the U.S. population ages and the ratio declines of workers paying into the program per retiree.  

The report indicated that the primary changes that had the largest effects on the actuarial deficit were: 1) revisions to lower assumed ultimate total fertility rates; 2) reductions in projected immigration levels; and 3) legislative changes to benefit taxation under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) enacted in July 2025. The OBBBA made permanent the lower ordinary income tax rates and adjusted tax brackets under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. As a result, the OASI and DI Trust Funds will receive lower future revenue levels from income taxation of Social Security benefits.

The Trustees recommended that lawmakers address the trust fund shortfalls in a timely way in order to gradually phase-in the necessary changes to allow workers and beneficiaries time to adjust their expectations and behavior as well as to protect future generations. 

The report is available here.