Industry News

On June 16, 2026, the Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College released its issue brief, Social Security’s Financial Outlook: The 2026 Update in Perspective. As presented in the issue brief, CRR analyzed the 75-year deficit in Social Security benefits projected in the recently released 2026 Social Security Board of Trustees Report.   

The key findings include:  

• The Social Security Trustees Report indicated that the 75-year deficit increased from 3.82% in 2025 to 4.42% of taxable payroll in 2026.
• The depletion date for the combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds reserves remains 2034 (the same as last year’s report) with 83% of benefits payable at that time.
• The projected depletion date for the OASI Trust Fund reserves decreased from 2033 last year to 2032 this year, when the program will only be able to pay 78% of scheduled retirement benefits.
• A lower assumed disability incidence rate allows the DI Trust Fund to pay full benefits for the next 75 years.

Notably, the change in the deficit is significantly higher than last year’s report. The increase is mainly due to the new projections including changes that greatly reduce future revenues including: 1) a substantial reduction in the fertility-rate assumption; 2) lower assumed levels of temporary and unlawful immigrations; and 3) a reduction in income tax revenues from taxing Social Security benefits under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The brief states, “These three changes plus moving the valuation period and changing the methodology, which reduce the actuarial balance by 0.81%, are partially offset by two significant – and somewhat surprising – positive changes in assumptions: increased productivity and higher mortality rates.”

The brief concludes, “Social Security is facing a long-term financing shortfall and needs to be fixed. Even with a deficit that equals about 1.5 percent of GDP, the changes required to fix the system are well within the bounds of fluctuations in spending on other pro­grams in the past. Moreover, action needs to be taken quickly, before the OASI trust fund is depleted and benefits are cut in 2032. Numerous options are available on both the revenue and benefit sides to close the gap. All that is needed is the political will.”  

The brief is available here.