Industry News

On April 21, 2026, the National Association of State Retirement Administrators (NASRA) updated its standing issue brief, Public Pension Plan Investment Return Assumptions. NASRA examined public pension investment return data and found that recent changes in economic and financial conditions have caused many public plans to reexamine their investment return assumptions. 

According to the brief, “Every public pension plan in NASRA’s dataset reduced its investment return assumption since FY 09 in response to persistent lower inflation and lower projections for returns for many major asset classes in which public pension funds are invested. Higher inflation since 2021 marked a disruption to this trend, and, for the first time since the onset of this dataset, in FY 25, return assumptions were increased for more plans than were reduced.”

In the years following the Great Financial Crisis, all of the 131 plans measured have reduced their assumed rate of return. These reductions resulted in a decrease in the average return assumption from 7.94% in Fiscal Year (FY) 2009 to 7.00% in FY 2021. During this time period, the median return assumption decreased from 8.0% to 7.0%. The median rate has remained at that level since FY 2021 while the number of plans reducing their investment assumption has greatly slowed. The brief also provides a table showing the investment return assumptions that are in use, or announced for use, by the 131 plans included in the Public Fund Survey as of April 2026. 

In addition, the brief also discusses how the investment return assumption is established and evaluated. Then, it compares these assumptions with public funds’ actual investment experience and the challenging investment environment for public retirement systems.

The brief emphasizes that a governmental plan’s investment return assumption is focused on the long term, typically, an investment horizon of 30 to 50 years. Investment returns are important because investment earnings account for a majority of the revenues received by most public pension plans. According to the brief, since 1993, public pension funds have accrued an estimated $10.5 trillion in revenue. Of that amount, investment earnings account for $6.17 trillion (58.8%), employer contributions account for $3.11 trillion (29.5%), and employee contributions account for $1.22 trillion (11.7%).   

Typically, a 25-basis point reduction in the investment return assumption will increase the cost of a plan that has a Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) by 3% of pay (i.e., a reduction from 7.0% to 6.75% will increase the cost from 10% to 13% of pay). For a plan without a COLA, the return assumption will increase the cost by 2% of pay.

The brief concludes, “In terms of its effect on a pension plan’s finances and funding level, the investment return assumption is the single most consequential of all actuarial assumptions. The sustained period of historically low inflation and interest rates, which lasted for over a decade beginning in 2009, combined with lower projected returns for most asset classes, caused nearly all public pension plans to reduce their long-term expected investment return.”

In addition, the brief contains two appendices with: 1) the current nominal investment return assumption used in the 131 public pension plans in NASRA’s dataset; and 2) the entity responsible for setting the investment return assumption for selected state plans.   

The brief is available here.