Industry News

Recently, the American Academy of Actuaries released its issue brief, Reforming Social Security Sooner Rather Than Later. The 2026 issue brief is a revision of a previous 2023 brief that includes updated projections of the Social Security’s combined trust fund reserves (Old-Age Survivors Insurance Trust Fund and the Disability Insurance Trust Fund). The brief indicates that the 2025 Social Security Trustees Report projects that the combined trust fund reserves are projected to become depleted around 2034. At that time, its income would only be able to pay 80% of the benefits scheduled for its anticipated 81 million beneficiaries. 

According to the brief, “It is important that Congress immediately focus on this issue; delay narrows the viable options to those that rely on significant tax increases. If Congress does not act by 2034, we will be faced with: an automatic 20% cut in benefits for those already receiving benefits, an immediate increase in Social Security taxes of almost 25%, or some combination of benefit reductions and tax increases.” It adds, “It is too late for benefit reductions on new beneficiaries to have much impact in avoiding the upcoming depletion.”

The brief discusses various reform elements that could reduce Social Security’s shortfall by 2034. It concludes that, “Immediate action by Congress could: 1) make it less likely that a substantial Social Security tax increase or benefit reduction is needed in 2034; 2) give Congress more flexibility regarding which approaches to take; 3) enable phasing in tax increases and benefit reductions, which is less disruptive for employers, workers, their dependents, survivors, and beneficiaries; 4) give people more time to adjust to the changes, enabling better decisions; 5) spread the impact across a larger group, so that the impact on each individual can be smaller; and 6) provide people greater confidence that they will receive their Social Security benefits.”

Currently, Piotr Krekora, Senior Consultant at GRS and Brian Murphy, a retired Senior Consultant and past President of GRS, serve on the AAA’s Social Security Committee.    

The issue brief is available here.