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On December 4, 2025, the American Academy of Actuaries (AAA) released its policy paper, An Actuarial Perspective on the 2025 Social Security Trustees Report. The paper was developed by the AAA’s Social Security Committee and presents the Committee’s perspective regarding the 2025 Trustees Report, which examines the Social Security program’s long-term solvency issues.   

Importantly, the Trustees Report reflects the emerging demographic and economic events and conditions. The most recent projection is impacted by: the legislation repealing the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset; a lower assumed share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) paid as labor compensation; and an extension of the time period to reach the assumed ultimate total fertility rate. 

According to the report, “Social Security currently fails both short-term (over the next 10 years) and long-term (over the next 75 years) measures of financial adequacy. Over the short term, the current reduction in immigration counts may adversely affect the system’s financial condition. Over the long term, a continuation of the current historically low rate of fertility would also negatively impact trust fund finances.” ​ 

Some of the key findings include:

• The combined trust fund reserves are projected to become depleted during 2034, one year earlier than projected last year. 
• If changes to the program are not implemented before 2034, only 81% of scheduled benefits would be payable after depletion in 2034, declining to 72% by 2099.
• The actuarial deficit increased from 3.50% of taxable payroll to 3.82% of taxable payroll.   

Congress is urged to act to ensure the sustainable solvency of the Social Security program. 

Currently, Piotr Krekora, Senior Consultant at GRS and Brian Murphy, a retired Senior Consultant and past President of GRS, serve on the AAA’s Social Security Committee.  

The policy paper is available here.