Industry News

On July 8, 2025, the Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College released its issue brief, Social Security’s Financial Outlook: The 2025 Update in Perspective. As presented in the issue brief, CRR analyzed the 75-year deficit in Social Security benefits projected in the recently released 2025 Social Security Board of Trustees Report.  

The key findings include: 

• The 2025 Trustees Report indicated that the 75-year deficit increased from 3.50% to 3.82% of taxable payrolls, and the trust fund’s depletion date remains at 2033.
• The future deficit could be higher if the fertility rate remains low, millions of immigrants are deported and future immigration levels are reduced, and people live longer than expected.
• The projected depletion date for the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund assets remains at 2033.
• A lower assumed disability incidence rate allows the Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund to pay full benefits for the next 75 years.
• The depletion date for the combined OASDI trust funds is 2034 (one year earlier than last year’s report).

Notably, the change in the deficit is somewhat higher than last year’s report mainly due to: 1) the enactment of the Social Security Fairness Act that raised the benefits for some state and local workers; 2) the period of recovery from current low fertility rates that was extended by 10 years to 2050; 3) the projection period that was moved forward one year, which replaces a low-deficit year with a high-deficit year; and 4) the projected ratio of labor compensation to GDP that was reduced, which reduces payroll tax revenues. 

The brief concludes, “Social Security is facing a long-term financing shortfall that equals about 1 percent of GDP. The changes required to fix the system are well within the bounds of fluctuations in spending on other pro­grams in the past. Moreover, action needs to be taken before the OASI trust fund is depleted in 2033 to avoid a precipitous cut in benefits.” 

The brief is available here.