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On June 12, 2024, the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) released their semi-annual report, The Fiscal Survey of States: Spring 2024. The report updates information on the states’ fiscal conditions and presents aggregate and individual data on the states’ general fund receipts, expenditures and balances. The survey was conducted by NASBO and completed by the governors’ state budget officers in all 50 states.  

The report highlights governors’ budget proposals for fiscal 2025 and provides updated estimates for general fund spending, revenue and balances for fiscal 2024 as well as actual data for fiscal 2023. According to NASBO, in fiscal 2025, state budget growth is expected to slow following two consecutive years of significant increases, partially driven by one-time expenditures using surplus funds.

For fiscal 2025, the recommended budgets are estimated to decrease by 6.2% for general fund spending. In fiscal 2024, states estimated total general fund spending of $1.22 trillion was on course for annual growth in the aggregate of 14.4% following an annual increase of 7.2% in fiscal 2023. The median nominal growth rate for general fund spending is 10.3% in fiscal 2023, that is estimated to increase 7.6% in fiscal 2024, and is projected to increase 1.1% in fiscal 2025.

Other key findings include:

• For fiscal 2024 general fund revenue collections, 33 states reported exceeding original budgeted revenue projections, while 10 states reported being below original estimates and seven reported being on target. At the time of data collection, current estimates for fiscal 2024 were up by 1.2%.
• Growth in general fund revenues has slowed after two of the fastest growing years in the survey history declining by 1.1% in fiscal 2023 and estimated to increase 0.6% in fiscal 2024 and 1.6% in fiscal 2025 based on recommended budgets.
• As a share of general fund spending, the median rainy day fund balance is expected to increase from 12.3% in fiscal 2023 to 13.2% in fiscal 2024 and 15.0% in recommended budgets for fiscal 2025. 
• Total balances that include rainy day funds and general fund ending balances represented 37.4% as a share of total general fund expenditures at the end of fiscal 2023; as states draw down general fund balances, total balances are projected to be 23.2% of general fund expenditures by the end of 2025. 

The full report and summary are available here.